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Putin anticipates decline in European purchases and wants to shift Russian exports to Asia

While Europeans have stated since the beginning of the Russian war in Ukraine that they want to reduce their dependence on Russian energy, Vladimir Putin responds by indicating that he is thinking about where he wants to send his exports. “We assume that deliveries to the West will decrease in the future”said the Russian president. Must therefore “Reorienting our exports to the markets in the south and east that are growing rapidly”, he stated on Thursday 14 April during a government meeting devoted to the energy sector in the context of international sanctions.

“There are opportunities, options and alternative opportunities open to us. As for Russian oil, gas and coal, we will be able to increase their consumption in the internal market (…) and increase the supply of energy resources to other regions of the world that really need them”, Vladimir Putin had already stated the day before.

The Russian president believes that European speeches ” destabilize the market and drive up prices. Yet he wants to be sure: Of course, this creates difficulties for us, but we have the resources and capabilities to quickly find alternative solutions.” he claimed.

For Vladimir Putin, “Efforts by Western countries to evict Russian suppliers, to replace our energy resources with alternative stocks, will inevitably have repercussions on the entire global economy.”ensure that “the consequences of such a step can be very painful, and in the first place for the initiators of such a policy”.

Biden accuses Putin of committing “genocide” in Ukraine and of wanting to “wipe out the idea that it is possible to be Ukrainian”

A not new “turn to Asia”

Vladimir Putin has not specified which countries he thinks of when he talks about the south and east, but China, whose hunger for hydrocarbons continues to grow, borders Russia. However, Beijing has a reputation for being a tough negotiator and Russia wants to look beyond its neighbour.

Russia has already started a “Turn to Asia”“This Russian vision is not new”, recently confirmed to La Tribune Jacques Sapir, Director of Studies at EHESS (School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences) and Foreign Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences

“Russia’s energy strategy for 2030, then 2040, was established in 2010. And each version insisted a little more on turning to Asia, in order to reduce the dependence of Russia’s exports on Europe. There has always been the idea with Vladimir Putin to reduce his dependence on Western countries and the United States, but especially on European countries.” indicates Jacques Sapir.

“For Russia, turning to Asia has become essential for its freedom of movement” (Jacques Sapir)

US focuses on enforcement of sanctions

This call from the Russian president to develop new outlets for Russian fossil fuels comes as Europeans consider extending their sanctions against Moscow’s hydrocarbons in response to his military intervention in Ukraine. The Russian oil and gas that continues to flow to Europe – its first market – provides important revenues for Moscow. The EU, the US and Japan have already announced an embargo on Russian coal and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has indicated that she will propose the goal of EU independence from Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

Ukraine: why the European embargo on Russian coal won’t be enough to make Putin bend

In any event, the United States believes that it “Great Punishments” against Russia and focus on their execution, in particular on fighting any attempt at “evasion”, i.e. the risk of Russia circumventing the measures imposed by the United States, indicated on Thursday 14 April that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan a symposium. “Over the next two weeks, we will be making announcements identifying targets attempting to make this breakout possible, both in Russia and beyond,” he declared.

The national security adviser also assured, about the wealth of the Russian oligarchs now frozen because of the sanctions, for example their yachts or their financial assets: “Our goal is not to send them back” to their owners at the end of the conflict, but “to put them to better use”. And to add: “There are ways that we already have, and others that we might be able to develop, and we’re actively considering them.”

Some US lawmakers have already called for the sale or liquidation of Russian assets affected by the sanctions to fund Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

Ukraine: EU prepares to adopt sixth package of sanctions against Russia

(with AFP)