FMCG prices rose 2.9% in April. An inflationary trend that should increase in the coming months with the impact of the war in Ukraine.
+15% for pasta, +11% for frozen meat, +10% for flour… The increase in prices for consumer products is impressive for certain products. According to the latest figures from Iri, an institute specializing in the analysis of consumer product data, their price has increased by 2.9% in a year at the end of April. Only for foodstuffs the increase is 3.1%.
But these increases are not only caused by the war in Ukraine. †worldwide, vsThis inflation is related to events that occurred in 2021, most notably the coronavirus pandemic which has resulted in increased transport and packaging costs. There is always a lag between the rise in raw material prices and their impact on the points of sale.explains Emily Mayer, Director Business Insight (commercial perspectives) within the Iri.
In detail, the price increase of pasta, up 15.31%, mustard (+9.26%) and semolina and accompanying cereals (+7.47%) is mainly caused by drought that hit Canada in the summer of 2021, she explains. †Canada is a major producer and exporter of durum wheat and mustard seed. This climatic event has reduced harvests while demand is still strongEmphasizes Emily Mayer.
Frozen meat, which was in second place in April among the most inflationary products with a price increase of 11.33%, and minced meat (+7.91%). intensive. †The rise in grain prices also increases the cost of animal feed» says Iri’s Business Insight director.
Multi-factor price increases
As for oils, whose price has increased by 9.98%, several factors explain this increase. In the summer of 2021, Brazil had to deal with a wave of frost that mainly affected soybeans and ultimately soybean oil. Added to this is the increase in the oil price, which is driving many players to switch to biofuels, increasing the demand for vegetable oils. The price of roasted coffee has increased by 8.16%. The frost in Brazil is also the main cause as Brazil is the largest coffee producer in the world. In addition, coffee is roasted by using gas, the price of which also rises.
The 10.93% increase in flour price is mainly caused by climatic hazards. †The warm weather that raged in the United States, Canada and also Russia in the summer of 2021 affected the crop of common wheat, the source of flour.says Emily Mayer.
This inflation trend should continue in the coming months. †The impact of the war in Ukraine will be felt on prices within a few months. We expect prices to rise by 3.5% at the end of May and by 5% at the beginning of the summer.Emphasizes Emily Mayer of Iri. Oil and flour should be especially affected, because Ukraine is the largest producer of sunflower oil in the world and Ukraine and Russia account for a third of exports. wheat tender in the world.
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