The employment of executives is threatened by the war in Ukraine!

The war in Ukraine threatens the employment of executives for this Tribune article.

“With 270,000 hires in 2021, executive employment is almost back to pre-crisis levels (280,000), according to the Executive Employment Association, Apec. The brake on the French economy may well stop this dynamic. The association has to announce the recruitment intentions of executives for this year at the end of April.

“The war in Ukraine has significantly darkened the economic horizon. After a strong recovery in 2021 (+18%), executive employment could suffer from the chain reactions of this conflict at the gates of the European Union. Most economic forecasting institutes have revised their 2022 growth rates downwards.

In its report for the year 2021, revealed on Monday, April 4, the Association for the Employment of Executives (APEC) fears that recruitment volumes for executives for companies will decline. “Potential adjustments or even postponements of investment and/or transformation projects in companies may occur, as well as lower-than-expected financial results. The rise in the prices of energy and many commodities could have a particularly large impact in certain industrial activities, even in certain service sectors that are closely linked to the industrial sphere,” warns Apec. Even if the association doesn’t move ahead of numerical predictions for 2022, the prospect of a protracted war could well shake the cards of the highly dynamic job market in 2021.

It’s quite logical.

Current hiring is driven by a threefold phenomenon. Relatively large retirements, a dynamic linked to the post-covid recovery, and finally a lot of layoffs and a musical musical chairs where everyone tests whether the grass is greener elsewhere by going through life changes.

But the war in Ukraine and rising inflation are changing all these bright prospects, because what happens is likely to lead to a recession, the extent of which has yet to be determined, but economic activity will slow and contract, especially since the central banks decided ‘normalize’ their monetary policy, meaning less cheap money and thus higher interest rates.

In short, everything points to a strong economic slowdown from the second half of 2022.

Charles SANNAT

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