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When is the climb?

With 8 and 10 points respectively ahead of 2nd and 3rd in the Championship, it is more than reasonable to think that the Toulouse FC has one foot and 9.9 toes in Ligue 1. Perhaps even the opposite would be irrational. But if you’re from Toulouse, you also know that 10 points can be recovered. It is clear that the two situations are not comparable, as before there were 10 games left at Tèf, while today there are only 7 left, and this delay had to be mainly made up for at least two clubs that were fighting to keep and therefore were out of shape. In the situation that concerns us, the chasers have to catch winning clubs, which is very different. Nevertheless, let’s look at the problem mathematically to be convinced.

First, is the possibility of not seeing Tèf finish in one of the first two places calculated? By observing the probabilities of the location https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/ligue-2/, and given the current positions of each, it would be necessary for 2 of the 4 chasing clubs to pass for the TFC. However, we already realize that the chances of this happening at any of these clubs are extremely slim: 0.02% chance of getting back in front for Paris FC, 0.07% for Auxerre, 0.45% for Ajaccio and ultimately 0 .06% for Sochaux. Therefore, the chances of the Violets being overtaken by two of his pursuers are infinitesimally small: 0.00074%. the men of Comollic therefore have a 99.99926% chance of moving up at the time of writing. For the title, Toulouse’s chances are slightly lower as only one club has to surpass them: 99.40% chance of winning the title.

The question then arises when this could happen. If the teams continue at their pace since the start of the season, then the welcome from Niort could be the pinnacle of the Purple effort. Because, not satisfied with officially winning the promotion that night, the men of Philippe Montanier would also be declared champion. With an average of 2.13 points per game since the start of the season, they would be more than 9 points ahead of second and more than 11 on third by the end of the game against the Chamois, securing their promotion. suggested. title on the same night. Always keeping this pace in mind, Toulouse FC would finish the season with almost 81 points, which has only happened twice in the 21st century (Metz in 2018-2019 and Reims the previous season).

But can it be sooner? At best, Toulouse can be promoted against QRM† It would be necessary for that to be 15 points ahead of the 3rd after the game. The only possibility is that Tèf will win his next two matches (47.20% chance) and that both the PFCs scores no more than 1 point (32.64%), Auxerre no more than 2 (24.19%) and Sochaux no more than 3 (50.55%). That is a very small chance of this happening (1.88%).

Finally, to make this happen Sochaux, Tèf should increase or maintain his lead over 3 of his 4 pursuers, and even more than 4 for the title. More precisely, it will be necessary to take 4 points against Ajaccio (36.61% chance of this happening), 2 against Paris (74.63%), 1 against Auxerre (52.11 %) and maintain his lead over Sochaux (67.90%). † Or 33.48% chance of being promoted to Bonal and 9.67% of winning the title there.

The lights are therefore on green to end this wonderful season in apotheosis. But football is what it is, a lot can still happen. Let the Violets stay focused until the final result to avoid a comeback, which even PSG can’t bear.

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