Researchers predict when humanity will become a type I civilization

† Not for the year 2371 is the conclusion of a study published on the server arXiv, performed by Dr. Jonathan H. Jiang of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and its collaborators. This means that humanity will not a priori be able to exploit and store all available energy on Earth for at least 350 years. However, researchers point out that our evolution must integrate a major energy transformation.

Of the various criteria used to assess the progress of a civilization (population growth, empire formation and fall, technological capabilities, etc.), the level of energy consumption appears to be a reliable approximation of technological progress. Indeed, since its appearance and as man has evolved, his ability to exploit energy has only increased – and one can easily imagine the same for potential other civilizations, aliens. It is from this observation that the Kardachev scale is derived.

Presented in 1964 by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardachev, this scale is a theoretical method of classifying civilizations according to their level of technological development and their energy consumption. It includes three types of civilizations: type I can store and use all available energy on its planet – including the amount of stellar energy it reaches; type II can consume a star’s energy directly; type III is able to absorb all the energy radiated by its universe† This scale was revised in 1973 by American astronomer Carl Sagan, who proposed a finer classification, integrating intermediate levels between the three types.

A current situation far from type I

A type I civilization, called “planetary civilization” is characterized by an energy power of 10¹⁶ W. This comes from all available energy sources on the planet, but also from the radiation from its parent star. On Earth, people can exploit fossil fuels, nuclear energy, wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy and tidal energy. Located about 150 million kilometers from the sun, the earth benefits from radiation with an average power of 1361 W/m² every year.

Power harnessed by the three types of civilizations of the Kardachev scale. © Wikimedia Commons-CC BY-SA 3.0

A type II civilization is theoretically able to muster all the power of its star, or about 10²⁶ W. As an example, the sun generates a force of about 4 × 10²⁶ W. To harness and store that much energy, such a civilization must be able to build immense infrastructure, like a Dyson sphere. Finally, a civilization of the “galactic” type (type 3) can theoretically exploit a force equal to 10³⁶ W. The brightness of our Milky Way is about 4 x 10³⁷ w.

Currently, humanity exploits about 10¹³ W. Based on International Energy Agency data (showing that in 2018 the total energy supply was 1.9 x 10 .)¹³ W) and based on the formula developed by Carl Sagan, we place ourselves exactly at the 0.728 level of the Kardachev scale and consume 0.16% of the available power – so we are far from type I. ever get that far? This is what an international team of researchers tried to find out, whose study is available on the server arXiv†

Development of nuclear energy production under different conditions: current production, which is based on aging power plants (in black), with no additional infrastructure (in red), with additional infrastructure (in blue), with an ideal growth rate of 2.47% per year (in the green). © J. Jiang et al.

In this study, they analyze the consumption and supply of energy from the three main sources: fossil fuels (eg coal, oil, natural gas), nuclear energy and renewable energy sources. The goal is to examine the growth of each of these resources. † We also take into account the environmental limits proposed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency and which are specific to our calculations. the team says.

A necessary elimination of fossil fuels

As the researchers point out, the problem is that every energy source has its limits: For example, overuse of fossil fuels can have devastating effects on the climate, leading to the extinction of humanity long before it reaches Type I — a phenomenon scientists are noticing.” call it the Great Filter” (a concept denoting a succession of barriers that prevent the emergence of a sustainable civilization). Hence the importance of taking into account the levels of pollution associated with each energy source to estimate the date when humanity could switch to type I.

Humanity could become a Type I civilization if it draws its strength solely from nuclear and renewable energy sources. © J. Jiang et al.

† Our results suggest that the best estimate for this day will not come before the year 2371. », the team concludes. Should we worry about it? Not really. Much of our technological advances, especially in computing, are based on increased efficiency coupled with lower energy consumption. In other words, we don’t necessarily need to use more force to keep making progress.

Forecasting the evolution of humanity’s score on the Kardachev scale. © J. Jiang et al.

The study also emphasizes the need for a major transition in the energy supply on a global scale, especially in the 2030s. If this energy transformation will initially lead to a slight increase in the Kardachev scale (even a stagnation, or even a decrease ) , according to the researchers, it is the best way to avoid the environmental barriers caused by fossil fuels.

Source : J. Jiang et al., arXiv