Three years after the fall of Omar al-Bashir, Sudan is on the brink of collapse

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It was April 11, 2019, when Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was ousted by the military after nearly 30 years in power. The regime then faced the greatest challenge in its history – 4 months of daily demonstrations against the high cost of living and against the regime. Under pressure from the streets, the military had to release, arrest and imprison the country’s strongman in the famous Kober Prison, in Khartoum.

Three years after the fall of dictator Omar al-Bashir, Sudan is on the brink of collapse. Politically in the first place because the country still has no government. Since their coup last October, the military has displaced civilians and is struggling to find new partners with whom to form a new transitional government, a precondition for a resumption of international aid.

Only a few parties, notably the Islamists, have agreed to a dialogue with the regime. † But the street won’t accept them ” a political analyst warns and the demonstrations, as well as the repression, are likely to increase.

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More than 90 protesters have been killed by security forces since October last year. Hundreds were arrested, including 25 opposition and civil society leaders – still in prison.

Economic collapse

The country is also on the brink of economic collapse. The Sudanese currency is in free fall and has lost a quarter of its value since the coup. Inflation is officially at 260%. According to the World Food Programme, 9 million Sudanese out of a population of 44 million suffer from acute hunger.

Three years ago, it was the demonstrations against the price of bread that also caused the fall of Omar el-Bashir. A few months after his arrest, the dictator was sentenced to two years in prison for corruption after more than $100 million was found in his home.

At the time, he was also prosecuted for the murder of protesters, the coup that brought him to power and the crimes committed in Darfur. But these lawsuits will not succeed.

What fate for Omar al-Bashir?

Under the civilian government of Abdallah Hamdock, Omar el-Béchir has been extradited to the ICC, which charges him with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur. Discussions about his transfer have stalled as the sovereign council – headed by the regime’s number General Burhan – is flouting.

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Last October, the military coup put an end to any possibility of his transfer to The Hague. Omar al-Bashir would have been transferred to a specialized hospital in Khartoum with several top men of his former party.

Last week, a 20th of the former government officials, including former foreign minister Ibrahim Ghandour, were acquitted by the courts and released. Proof, according to protest leaders, that the military force is rehabilitating the old regime and has no intention of handing over the former president to international justice.

Some days I’m very optimistic, I see all these young people and all these demonstrations, and I tell myself that the fight continues. And the next day reality catches up with me, I see all those old political figures that have been there for years and I tell myself they’re not going to change anything; that we are blocked and that we are spinning in circles.

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