She assures him: she has changed. Marked by the debate between the failed rounds of 2017, where she seemed unsure about her calculations, Marine Le Pen reviewed her copy in 2022. Leave the European Union or retire at 60 for all. This time, the National Rally candidate is betting everything on her purchasing power proposals… and on a program she claims is balanced. What is it really? Franceinfo has deciphered its proposals.
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The principle of economic patriotism
The Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reminded us that the flaws of globalization, with shortages, delays, price increases… Marine Le Pen therefore proposes to “economic patriotism” and “localism” for “reindustrialize and produce wealth in France”† Asked by franceinfo, his chief of staff, Renaud Labaye, acknowledges that“we can’t move everything”. He makes sure to get attention “industry”the products needed for the “sovereignty” and the sectors to “high added value”. A project very similar to that of “France Relance”, set up by Emmanuel Macron in 2020. “We can’t deny that moving strategic sectors was a good idea”, acknowledges Renaud Labaye. However, he believes that the EUR 1 billion allocated by the government to encourage relocations is “too weak”.
Will the Lepenists move only take place within our borders, without regard for our European neighbours? Impossible, according to HASnne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at BDO France, an economic consultancy. On the one hand, because “France is a very small market, less attractive to companies than the European Union”. On the other handbecause “Value chains already exist at European level”with a breakdown of the different stages of production, according to the economic efficiency of each country and the skills available there† To produce entirely on our territory would entail much higher costs, so a price more important for the customer. “Links with other EU countries will be possible”tempers the candidate RN’s advisor, who nevertheless believes that in “By breaking the vicious circle of relocations – job losses – reduction of purchasing power, the French will find space to buy products whose price will have been slightly higher”†
The RN candidate also wants to reduce France’s contribution to the European Union budget by: “five billion euros”† Problem: The contribution of each Member State is set according to identical rules for seven years. In theory, France commits until 2027. This would not prevent the candidate, if elected, from starting negotiations before this date, its team assures. Some countries, such as the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, have already managed to get discounts: the probability of a discount is therefore estimated “completely possible” by certain economists, such as Eulalia Rubio, researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute, at the request of TF1† On the other hand it looks like him “impossible” that it is of the magnitude the RN was hoping for. But if France does not pay the full contribution due, it will face prosecution and sanctions, including the end of the generous subsidies of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which largely benefit French farmers.
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Marine Le Pen’s economic patriotism doesn’t stop there. The far-right candidate wants to establish a “national priority” in access to government contracts. But this measure would be contrary to European competition law, believes the Terra Nova Foundation, labeled as close to center-left. This decision would result in “by raising prices first for the government, then for the taxpayer or the user”according to the think tank.
Measures for purchasing power
Marine Le Pen’s campaign has largely revolved around her promise to restore purchasing power from… “to forget” Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term. However, his program multiplies the proposals that benefit the portfolio of the richest, at least as much as that of the working class.
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The candidate therefore promises: “Reduce VAT from 20% to 5.5%” on energy products, in particular fuels. Which would be equal to “subsidize wealthy households that use a lot of fuel because they have large vehicles”explains Mathieu Plane, economist at theFrench Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE). Likewise, the 15% reduction in tolls would benefit all motorists. “LThe highway is mostly used for long journeys (…) and less often for daily commute journeys”† further highlights Terra Nova†
Unlike many of its competitors, who had chosen to raise, the minimum wage to improve the purchasing power of the most precarious workers, Marine Le Pen wants to encourage companies to increase salaries below the three times the minimum wage by 10% (4,947 euros gross or more than 1,760 euros above the median salary) by exempting this increase from employer contributions. But the Montaigne Institutea liberal think tank, believes this exemption would primarily create a windfall: companies that already planned to raise wages without triggering further hikes.
What about removing? VAT on a “hundreds of basic needs” † as long as inflation is one point higher than growth”† It could theoretically ease the budget of both the most modest and the wealthiestbut he is complicated to assess consumer benefit, as the list of affected products is not final. Marine Le Pen featured on BFM TV “salt, pepper, oil, paste, sanitary napkin, diapers”. However, most of these items already benefit from 5.5% VAT. The effectiveness of this measure would also depend on: “the behavior of producers” and distributorswho could take advantage of the abolition of the tax to raise their prices, explains Brice Fabre, an economist at the Institute of Public Policy. In that case, Marine Le Pen could resort to price-blocking, her chief of staff assures.
Taxation in favor of the richest
Here too, the fiscal policy of Marine Le Pen’s program would primarily benefit the wealthiest and corporations. The candidate therefore proposes an income tax exemption for all young employees up to the age of 30, so thats “stay in France and found their family here”. This measure would in fact mainly affect the richest young people. With an average income of 7,490 euros per year, the vast majority of 18-25 year olds are not subject to income tax. As for the 26-30 year olds, their income (average 16,220 euros) “exposes them to a tax burden that is itself very low in most cases”marked Terra Nova think tank† “Where the precarious youngster will earn next to nothing, the young executive graduate will pocket a few thousand euros and the state will lose a few extra billions.”
The donations to the very rich would also relate to the tax on heritage. Marine Le Pen wants to replace the wealth tax (IFI) with a wealth tax, from which the main residence is exempt. A measure that “will protect the middle class that sometimes entered the ISF [prédécesseur de l’IFI] through the simple appraisal of a family real estate heritage”insured the candidate for Parisian† Currently, the IFI concerns real estate above EUR 1.3 million, on which existing debts and a 30% discount on the main residence must be deducted. In other words, a Frenchman whose real estate consists of a main residence worth 1.7 million euros does not pay any tax on it.
The candidate also plans to lower the estate tax. A “textbook case of the empty gift”, according to Terra Nova. And rightly so: like any reform of the law of succession, this one mainly concerns the richest French. “85 to 90% of direct inheritances (from parent to child) are tax-exempt”explained the economist Clément Dherbécourt to franceinfo in this regard.
Financing probably underestimated
Criticized for the feasibility of its economic program, Marine Le Pen . published a calculation document to describe how it will balance its budget. But his statements are far from convincing economists, who for many believe that the costs of the planned measures are largely underestimated. l’Montaigne Institute estimates the amount of expenditure at EUR 119.6 billion, far from the forecast of EUR 68.3 billion. Some of the measures identified as: “without budgetary consequences” According to economists, this would also entail real costs for the state. “It’s not a financial account, it’s an order of magnitude of measures”justifies Marine Le Pen’s chief of staff.
The income that would offset the costs identified by the candidate is also unclear. The fight against fraud should therefore yield 15 billion euros. But “wanting to fully recover the amount linked to the fraud is an illusion”remembers Xavier Timbeau, certain parameters are difficult to control (cash payments, overtime, etc.). “We can hope to recover EUR 7 billion from social fraud, but not before 2027. (…) As far as tax evasion is concerned, more than EUR 5 billion seems complicated to me”says the lobbyist Agnes Verdier-Molinie in the Parisian† At the National Rally, Renaud Labaye bets on “a dedicated ministry and a “political will” in order to achieve the goal.
Some recipes, such as the prediction that “the sharp drop in immigration will allow to reduce many costs related to insecurity”estimated at two billion euros, seems even vaguer. “It is an estimate of what the reduction in crime will bring, savings will be made on the budget of translators in the courts or on the damage to police cars, for example”explains Renaud Labaye.
